Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic osteoporosis screening using chest radiographs with deep learning in the United States

ABSTRACT

Objectives

Deep learning models applied to chest radiographs obtained for other clinical reasons have shown promise in opportunistic osteoporosis screening, particularly among middle-to-older-aged individuals. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of this approach in US women aged 50 years and over.

Methods

An economic model, incorporating both a decision tree and a microsimulation Markov model, estimated the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained ($2024) for screening via chest radiographs with deep learning, followed by treatment, versus no screening and treatment. The patient pathways were based on the sensitivity and specificity of AI-enhanced radiographs. Real-world medication persistence, realistic assumptions for probabilities of DXA examination post-screening detection and for treatment initiation rates were incorporated. Women with osteoporosis were stratified into high risk (receiving alendronate monotherapy for five years) and very high risk (receiving an 18-month anabolic treatment with abaloparatide followed by five years of alendronate). Parameter uncertainty was analyzed through sensitivity analyses.

Results

The opportunistic screening strategy improved health outcomes, yielding more QALYs and fewer fractures while increasing treatment costs. The cost per QALY gained of opportunistic screening was estimated at $72,085 per QALY gained among women 50+, remaining below the US cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000 per QALY. Further improvements in cost-effectiveness could be achieved by optimizing follow-up, treatment initiation, and medication adherence.

Discussion

This study underscores the cost-effectiveness and public health value of opportunistic, AI-driven screening osteoporosis screening using existing chest radiographs, demonstrating its potential to improve early detection and address unmet diagnostic needs in osteoporosis care.

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